What is the Fear & Greed Index?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a sentiment indicator that measures the overall emotional state of the cryptocurrency market on a scale from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). It aggregates multiple data sources to gauge whether the market is fearful or euphoric.

The concept is based on the famous Warren Buffett quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When the market is in extreme fear, it often represents a buying opportunity. When in extreme greed, it suggests a potential top.

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The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

— Warren Buffett

Fear & Greed Zones Explained

0-24

Extreme Fear

Market panic. Capitulation selling. Historically the best time to buy.

Signal: Strong Buy Opportunity
25-44

Fear

Investors are worried. Price declining. May still have room to fall, but value appearing.

Signal: Accumulation Zone
45-55

Neutral

Balanced sentiment. Neither fearful nor greedy. Market in equilibrium.

Signal: Wait for Directional Signal
56-75

Greed

Optimism rising. FOMO beginning. Prices may be getting stretched.

Signal: Take Partial Profits
76-100

Extreme Greed

Euphoria. "Number go up" mentality. Everyone's a genius. Historically precedes corrections.

Signal: High Risk — Reduce Exposure

How the Index Is Calculated

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index uses multiple data sources, each weighted differently, to produce a single sentiment score:

25%

Volatility

Compares current BTC volatility and max drawdown to 30/90-day averages. High unusual volatility = fear.

25%

Market Volume

Compares current volume to 30/90-day averages. High buying volume in a rising market = greed.

15%

Social Media

Analyzes Twitter/X hashtag activity, post volume, and interaction rates for crypto-related topics.

15%

Surveys

Weekly crypto polls gathering direct sentiment from traders (currently paused by some providers).

10%

BTC Dominance

Rising BTC dominance = fear (flight to safety). Falling dominance = greed (risk-on altcoin speculation).

10%

Google Trends

Search volume for crypto-related terms like "Bitcoin crash" (fear) or "buy crypto" (greed).

How to Use Fear & Greed for Trading

1. Contrarian Strategy (Most Effective)

Buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy. The most historically profitable approach.

Buy SignalIndex drops below 20 (Extreme Fear)
Sell SignalIndex rises above 80 (Extreme Greed)
DCA VariantIncrease DCA amounts during fear, decrease during greed
Historical Win Rate~75% when buying at Extreme Fear (1yr horizon)

2. Scaled Entry/Exit

Rather than timing the exact bottom or top, scale in and out based on the index level.

0-20Deploy 50% of available capital
20-35Deploy 25% of available capital
35-65Hold current positions, standard DCA
65-80Take 25% profits off the table
80-100Take 50% profits, tighten stops

3. Confirmation Filter

Don't use Fear & Greed as a standalone signal. Use it to filter and confirm other trading signals.

Example 1Technical buy signal + Extreme Fear = High-conviction buy
Example 2RSI overbought + Extreme Greed = Strong sell signal
Example 3Bullish breakout + Extreme Greed = Risky — reduce position size
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Important Caveat: The index can stay in extreme zones for weeks. Extreme Fear doesn't mean "buy immediately" — it means conditions are favorable for accumulation. Similarly, Extreme Greed can persist during parabolic runs. Use the index for position sizing and risk management, not exact timing.

Historical Signal Performance

The Fear & Greed Index has a strong track record of marking major market turning points:

March 2020

COVID Crash — Index hit 8 (Extreme Fear)

BTC dropped to $3,800. The index hit single digits — historic extreme fear. BTC rallied to $65,000 over the next 13 months (+1,600%).

Buying at fear: +1,600% return
Nov 2021

BTC All-Time High — Index at 84 (Extreme Greed)

BTC hit $69,000 with extreme greed readings for 3+ weeks. This marked the cycle top. BTC dropped 77% to $15,500.

Buying at greed: -77% drawdown
June 2022

Luna/3AC Collapse — Index at 6 (Extreme Fear)

Crypto market in panic after Luna collapse and Three Arrows Capital bankruptcy. Index hit 6. BTC was at ~$20,000.

Near generational bottom for many assets

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good Fear and Greed Index score to buy?

Historically, buying when the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is below 20 (Extreme Fear) has produced the best long-term returns. The best buying opportunities came at single-digit readings (COVID crash in 2020 at index 8, FTX collapse in 2022 at index 6). However, don't go all-in at once — scale in gradually as fear increases.

How often is the Fear and Greed Index updated?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is updated daily at 00:00 UTC. Some providers offer intraday updates, but the daily reading is the most widely referenced. For the best signal quality, look at the index trend over 7-14 days rather than a single daily reading.

Is the Fear and Greed Index reliable?

The index is a useful sentiment gauge, not a crystal ball. It correctly identified major market tops and bottoms historically (2020 COVID crash, 2021 cycle top, 2022 bear market bottom). However, it can stay in extreme zones for weeks, making timing difficult. Use it as one input among many, not as a standalone trading signal.

What is the difference between crypto and stock Fear and Greed Index?

The stock market Fear & Greed Index (by CNN) uses different inputs: put/call ratio, market momentum, safe-haven demand, junk bond demand, VIX, and stock price breadth. The crypto version focuses on volatility, volume, social media sentiment, BTC dominance, and Google Trends. Both measure the same concept but for different asset classes.

Can the Fear and Greed Index predict crashes?

The index doesn't predict crashes directly, but extended periods of Extreme Greed (80+) have historically preceded significant corrections. When the index stays above 80 for 2+ weeks while price makes new highs with declining volume, the risk of a correction is elevated. It's a risk indicator, not a timing tool.

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Test Your Knowledge

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Question 1

What reading indicates "extreme fear" on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index?